Searching for optimism in a terrible market

May 28, 2010  |  Dan Rafter  |  Print Article  |  Email this Article

Let’s be honest: The commercial real estate market is terrible. Really terrible. We may be blessed a bit in the Midwest because of the area’s conservative nature: We don’t get the high highs that markets on the coasts get. Of course, we don’t get the low lows, either. That’s the benefit.

When putting together the June issue of Midwest Real Estate News this week, I spoke to commercial real estate pros working in Columbus, Ohio; St. Louis; Milwaukee; Chicago; and Minneapolis. None of these pros lied to me; they all admitted that the commercial markets in their cities were down.

But they all offered some hope, too. For instance, Jay Holland, with Cassidy Turley’s St. Louis office, pointed to the diverse economic base of his city. He said that thanks to it, St. Louis’ fortunes don’t rise and fall with the performance of only one industry. For instance, in Las Vegas things go pretty bad when the gaming industry takes a stumble.

Randy Stephens, also with Cassidy Turley but with the company’s Columbus office, said that he’s happy to do business in Ohio’s capital city. That’s because the city is home to The Ohio State University, state government, more than 25 insurance companies and a host of other businesses. It’s why unemployment in the city is lower than it is in any other major metropolis in the state. And it’s why the commercial real estate market here, though in a sluggish period, hasn’t suffered nearly as bad as have other markets across the country.

Vic Clark, who oversees the Midwest region for Walker & Dunlop Real Estate Financial Services, said that he’s seeing the return of capital to the industry, something it desperately needs. He pointed to more aggressive lending from life insurance companies and the comeback of the CMBS market.

So there are signs of hope. Who knows how long it will take the commercial real estate market to bounce back to its recent boom days. Many of the commercial pros I speak with tell me that they don’t think we’ll ever return to those heady days.

For now, though, it’s enough to look for those slivers of hope. They’re out there. You just have to look closely for them.

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© 2012 Real Estate Communications Group. Duplication or reproduction of this article not permitted without authorization from the Real Estate Publishing Group. For information on reprint or electronic pdf of this article contact Mark Menzies at 312-644-4610 or menzies@rejournals.com

2 Responses to “Searching for optimism in a terrible market”

  1. Ted Braun says:

    Thanks for the reality. It will take a different kind of realtor and investor to survive and find those slivers of hope.

  2. Dan Rafter says:

    Thanks, Ted, for your comment. Things certainly have changed when it comes to commercial real estate.

    Dan


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